by Zhengguo Li, Feng Pan, Keng Pang Lim, Genan Feng, Xiao Lin and Susanto Rahardja.
The authors says “In this proposal, we present an adaptive picture layer rate control scheme for JVT by introducing a linear model to predict the mean absolute difference (MAD) of current picture by that of previous picture.”

http://ftp3.itu.ch/av-arch/jvt-site/2005_04_Busan/JVT-O016.doc